Yesterday morning, amidst a maddening crowd in western Pennsylvania, a small rodent named Phil was whisked from his cage and made to gaze haphazardly at a horde of people who had gathered for Groundhog Day festivities. Through the throngs of absent minded revelers and top hat wearing handlers, Phil’s shadow cast itself upon the ground like a great net of disappointment, thus revealing to all those who believe in groundhog folklore that winter will last for six more weeks. Yeah that’s right, six more cold and frigid winter weather weeks. Aren’t we lucky?
What I find interesting about Phil and his prognostications have nothing to do with his ability to foretell the weather and everything to do with the rate in which he sees his shadow. For instance, if I were to tell you that every year, as we awaken on February 2 there is an 88% chance that Phil will see his shadow, would you even fain surprise when, like clockwork, it is revealed that old Phil as seen his shadow yet again? Probably not, yet that is the rate in which Phil, the proverbial seer of seers and prognosticator of prognosticators sees his shadow, 98 times in 112 years of performing this monumental feat. Suffice it to say, even Vegas would not bet on Phil’s ability to predict an early spring as even in his 14 predictions of early spring, he has been right only 36% of the time. Perhaps the laws of statistics do not apply to Phil but year in and year out, we celebrate a day of foregone conclusions and utter ineptitude on the part of this pudgy and predictable woodchuck.
On a lighter note, I wonder if Al Gore and his global warming alarmists feel cheated each year when Phil sees his shadow. I would suspect an early spring would spell global warming much easier than that of a long and mostly normal winter weather season. Yet even as the snow falls and the ice rains, somehow, global warming prognosticators have convinced us all that no matter what the weather brings, it is due to the invisible phenomenon of global warming. Epic snows, global warming. Early spring, global warming. Freak snow storm, global warming. Too much rain, global warming. Too little rain, global warming. I guess we really should be happy to have an answer for all of the world’s weather regardless of warmth or lack thereof.
Perhaps Phil can take notes from the modern day prognosticators in which no matter what the prediction is…it is what was forecast in the first place as no one really wants to get caught up in the details anyway. Assumingly, all we really need is another meritless holiday and reason for celebration even when the information we receive is nothing more than a best guess by a bunch of nincompoops with a little glitz and glamour to boot. Move over Punxsutawney Phil, Algore is gunning for your gig except in his grand scheme and epic design, everyday will be Groundhog Day. Isn’t that dandy?
This just in…winter will end when spring begins…on March 20, 2009. (Global warming will end when the prevailing political winds blow in another direction). Oops, never mind…I just saw my shadow…six more years of global waywardness and absolute lunacy. Just a thought!
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