Bucking the System; the Popularity of President George W. Bush

I follow political polling and trends like most people follow weather forecasts. The same can said for the DJIA, a barrel of crude and statistical averages across three major sports. Trending is something I analyze, manipulate, and in many cases cite to buoy a political point or perspective. This hobby of mine, however, makes me horribly unpopular with those who engage in bandwagon politics for the sole purpose of fitting in with the aptly named “in crowd.” Not me. Fitting in politically has never been my bailiwick nor will it ever be with the current tide of entitlement that has swept across America. In this election cycle, the American people will soon decide whether a borderline Marxist liberal will obtain the presidency or if an elderly liberal Republican will get the nod. Absent their running mates, the politics of this cycle can be summed up as follows: after the presidency of George W. Bush, conservative politics as we know them will be taken out back and caned for the next four years. This is of course because George W. Bush is an atrociously unpopular president, or that assertion, at the very least, is what the statistics and talking heads suggest.





The graph above is a simple illustration of President Bush’s approval ratings through June 2008. What this graph illustrates is the notion that President Bush is horribly unpopular with the electorate, as per the dismal approval ratings. We see this dismal number of 25% and we draw conclusions as to why this number is so low. Do 75% of Americans really disapprove of President Bush? And if so, then why shouldn’t I? Due to that question, I decided to add a little objectivity to the above graph. Please don’t turn me in for copyright infringements…this is for illustrations purposes only (my add-on skills are way above par!)




(Add on information: January 2006 – Democrat filibuster of Supreme Court picks show spike in presidential popularity…hmmmm very interesting, November 2006 – Election Day – Democrats take control of Congress, approval numbers of the president substantially tank, Current approval rating of 25% - October 2008).

While President Bush enjoyed the largest approval rating ever in September 2001 (90%) he is also primed to leave office with the worst approval rating ever (since records have been kept, 25%). As a conservative, I do not accept the broad stroke explanation that conservatism should give way toward liberalism in the same manner that I do not wish the flu on my common man for the cure of his head ache. Historically speaking, here is why.





Since 1946, every president has produced similar approval rating graphs with one exception, Bill Clinton. We will get to Slick Willie in a second. Upon election to supreme leader of the world, our presidents have enjoyed approval ratings above 55% (i.e. the reason they were elected in the first place). Over the course of their presidencies, however, they had to make some hard decisions and their popularity began to wane. In some cases, these ebbs and flows were drastic and in others, a little more modest, however, the one constant is that they leave office with much less popularity in the polls. Bill Clinton being the lone exception (remember this: the exception does not disprove the rule.) Here is why.





BILL CLINTON DIDN’T DO ANYTHING!

Sorry, that is not indicative of my political prowess. I wanted to wake you up prior to illustrating these historical facts. President Clinton, who I have grown to love, gets his highest approvals amidst sexual misconduct allegations and perjury accusations. One interesting note on Clinton is that in late 1993, his approvals spike concurrently with Operation Gothic Serpent that was fought on October 3 and 4, 1993, in Mogadishu, Somalia, by forces of the United States supported by UNOSOM II against Somali militia fighters loyal to warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid. This was a quick strike operation. Perhaps this is a coincidence but it leads me to other war time presidents and interesting similarities with peace time presidents.






President Truman tanks in approval ratings prior to a November 1946 Republican take over of Congress thus dividing the parties of the executive and legislative branch. His popularity is ebb and flow until the onset of the Korean War, when, like President Bush, his popularity flops like a chocolate chip pancake in a sea of maple syrup.






Skipping forward to Lyndon Johnson, we see a continual downward trend in popularity due to the unpopular and on going Viet Nam war. Languishing throughout his term, Johnson enjoyed wild popularity compared to George W. Bush even though he chose to micro manage a war in a board game like fashion. Ignoring generals in the field and choosing targets over his morning coffee, I wonder how Johnson remained as popular as he did. I’d say George W. Bush wonders that as well.






Similar to Johnson’s ratings, Bush’s approval ratings tank after the onset of the Iraq war. Even the paltriest of political thinkers can make the assumption that the quagmire of war is unpopular with a population of quitters and corner cutters. But that is just me. Let’s consider these comparisons prior to moving on:

President Truman: Approval ratings tank at onset of Korean War.
President Eisenhower – Lowest approval rating is still over 50%, no wars in either term.
President Kennedy – Approval ratings decline throughout partial term most notably due to the Bay of Pigs Invasion and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Lest we’ve forgotten?
President Johnson – Lowest approval ratings seen around the Tet Offensive in Vietnam.
President Nixon – Highest approval rating seen around the Paris Peace Accords signed by all parties in Viet Nam. Watergate, really…why?
President Ford – Approvals tank just prior to Saigon falling to the North Vietnamese in early 1975.
President Carter – Lowest approval ratings during the Iranian Hostage Crisis in 1979.
President Regan – Considered to have ended the Cold War, Regan still left office with approval ratings under 60% after a plummet to the mid 40’s% during the Iran Contra scandal.
President H W Bush – Sees a major peak in popularity during the liberation of Kuwait (80%). The Persian Gulf War lasted from August 1990 until the Kuwaiti liberation in February of 1991.
President Clinton – Enjoys rising popularity amidst a provocative yet timid two terms in office.
President Bush – Steady decline in approval ratings until he tanks at 25% in October of this year. Can you say “One, two, three, four, what are we fighting for, don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn.” War is unpopular. Really!

The above information has illustrated my point that any president guilty of modern day war fighting in the eyes of the electorate will take a nose dive in approval rating. This does not count quick strikes that demonstrate our fighting prowess, i.e. the Persian Gulf War, et al. but only long and hardened wars against the filth of the world. If we don’t fight these wars, who will? Should tyrannical governments be allowed to systematically kill their people? Should the United States and our presidents act in our best interest? If George W. Bush knew the Iraq War would look like this:





Would he still have chosen to liberate a people from a tyrannical government, dispose of a murderous dictator, and create a democracy in the Middle East? Would you? The Iraqis are probably glad President Bush didn’t review graph prior to the liberation of their country.

Why would a president choose to go to war knowing his popularity will suffer in the long run, his legacy will be tarnished, and he will be accused of war mongering for the sake of oil? All good questions for debate, but not here…this is a numbers blog…onward my friends to congressional approval ratings.






The above graph illustrates Congressional approval rating since the Nixon administration. I find it interesting that once again, the highest approval ratings come amidst the onset of the Afghan conflict resulting from the September 11, 2001 attacks. What is even more interesting is the substantially low approval numbers across the board for our representative government. Here are the facts:






Throwing out 2001 when approval ratings reflected patriotism surrounding 9/11, the highest congressional approval ratings come during the 104th Congress when Republican leadership seized control and laid out their contract with America. (Republican Contract with America). Interesting enough, Bill Clinton’s popularity takes off like a bottle rocket at the very same time. Ultimately, Bill Clinton gets the credit for the economy while Newt Gingrich goes home to teach. Putting a microscope on recent approval ratings, it is my duty to share with you the following:





Since the Democrat take over of Congress in January 2007, their approval ratings have collapsed by more than 75% landing them at a robust 11% approval rating, by democrats none the less. (Writer’s note: these numbers are 9 months old, current approval ratings have the approval of this Congress below 10%. Freightening.) At a 25 – 30% approval rating, President Bush looks like a hero compared to our Democratic led Congress. But that is not what we hear on TV nor on the campaign trail is it?

What we continue to hear on the campaign trail from Barack Obama is that we need change and speaking rhetorically, change is what we will get on November 4, 2008, whether in the form of John McCain or Barack Obama. We will have change because George W. Bush, the media darling that he is will have served two consecutive terms as our president. While his popularity comes under scrutiny every day, I ask you this, with the information just provided and based on historical fact, is he really that unpopular or is it his war that is unpopular? And if indeed he is horrendously unpopular, how do you square away the fact that our Congress is half as popular as our president. Certainly there is a reason why the popularity of the Congress or lack thereof, is the fault of the Republican Party. Perhaps objectivity does not apply to politics these days but calls for a filibuster proof Senate and huge democratic gains in the House by congressional Democrats due to a lack of popularity by a lame duck president has me scratching my head and asking one very necessary question.

Is any one buying this POOP?

History paints a very clear picture. Modern war time presidents are unpopular. George W. Bush is unpopular because he went to war with Iraq. This notion has snowballed into what we see today; Democrats masquerading, yes I said MASQUERADING, as if they have a blank check to cash (tax dollars, folks! You must be patriotic) on behalf of the American people, and we the people, are eager to get out our check books and pony up to the bar. But are you ready to embrace hard left Marxist politics in the home of the free?

If you buy the Obama argument that change is needed because of George Bush’s unpopular Y2K politics and war, then you must also accept the argument when applied to the Congress. If, like me, you think the change argument is a load of poop, then perhaps you will reject the theory of political capital being put forth by Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the ruling power in Congress and elect John McCain, the only moderate running this cycle regardless of the coattails of President Bush. (Did I just support a liberal? I am feeling very, very worldly now).

So, in contrast to political consensus among the talking heads, here is the conscientious objectors take on the political winds today:

President Bush is not as unpopular as our democratic congress.

John McCain’s decision to distance himself from George Bush will cost him votes from a centrist / right leaning electorate.

Congressional approval ratings correlate directly with presidential approval ratings.

The electorate, including me, does not embrace hard left liberalism even though the nightly news tells us we do.

Hard decisions will always lead to dissent.

Most Americans prefer divided government (Even though I don’t).

Americans will resist either a Barack Obama presidency or a filibuster proof Senate.

Of course, I have been wrong once before…Just a thought!